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Business Insider预测金融科技:中国将于2020年发布数字货币

时间:2020-02-12 16:06:20  来源:澳洲幸运5开奖官网  编辑:jingdingyuan668  浏览:1

钛媒体注:近来,Business Insider 发布了关于2020年科技职业30大猜测,其间包含关于金融科技职业的五大猜测。Business Insider 以为,在2019年引起全球重视的Libra将不会在2020发布,但我国将发布数字钱银,此举将推进其他国家的发行方案。

此外,Business Insider 还提出了其对南美洲金融科技开展的看好。其以为,2020年南美金融科技范畴的单季度融资额将到达10亿美元的历史最高水平。

以下为Business Insider 陈述原文,经钛媒体编译:

2019 marked a dynamic and eventful year for the fintech industry, with big tech players pushing deeper into financial services, corporate giants and governments alike turning their focus to digital currencies, and the industry shifting its attention from fintechs’ user growth numbers to sustainability.

2019年关于金融科技职业而言是充满活力并且含义严重的一年,各大科技巨子纷繁深化金融服务范畴,企业和政府纷繁将重心转向数字钱银,整个职业的重视重心逐步由用户增加转移到可持续性。

Further, both incumbents and fintechs have been exploring new business models to diversify their revenue streams, players like Robinhood and Freetrade have been disrupting the trading industry by transforming the rules of the game, and emerging markets — such as Latin America — have come to the fore as vibrant fintech ecosystems.

此外,业界外人士都在探究新的商业形式,以使其收入来历多样化,Robinhood和Freetrade等公司现现已过改动游戏规则打乱了买卖职业,新式商场如拉丁美洲现已成为充满活力的金融科技生态系统。

Based on these developments, our proprietary research, and the trends we’ve seen intensifying as we head into the new year, here are our top five predictions for fintech in 2020.

依据这些开展、咱们的专有研讨以及咱们在新的一年中看到的不断加重的趋势,以下是咱们对金融科技2020年的五大猜测。

1、Libra won’t launch in 2020, but China will launch a digital currency and push other jurisdictions to follow suit — here’s why:

Libra将不会在2020年上市,但我国将发布数字钱银,此举将推进其他国家的发行方案,理由如下:

Facebook remains confident it can deliver on Libra, but since the project has been plagued by criticism, we don't think it will launch in 2020. In June, Facebook announced its plan to launch its cryptocurrency, Libra, with 28 partners in H1 2020. Many regulatory bodies and governments have scrutinized the project since then — Mark Zuckerberg had to testify in front of Congress amid concerns that Libra could facilitate money laundering, endanger users' assets, and give Facebook more power, for instance.

Facebook仍有决心发布Libra,但因为该项目一向饱尝批判,咱们以为它不会在2020年推出。2019年6月,Facebook宣告方案在2020年上半年与28家协作伙伴推出加密钱银Libra。从那时起,许多监管组织及政府就开端细心检查这个项目——他们忧虑Libra或许滋长洗钱行为、危及用户财物并赋予Facebook更多权利,这使得马克·扎克伯格不得不在国会面前举行听证会以解说这一切不会发作。

The loss of support from some of its key members, including Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal, has also put a damper on the project.But Facebook has already logged over 51,000 test transactions in November and insists it can resolve government worries and launch within H2 2020.

此前Libra联盟的一些核心成员,包含Visa、Mastercard和PayPal等均表明不再支撑这个项目,也给其带来了阻止。但Facebook在11月现已记录了超越51000笔测验买卖,并坚称它可以处理政府的忧虑,并在2020年下半年推出。

This confidence is likely fueled by a strong track record of getting its way, including with the acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp, despite regulatory concerns. However, we think this time will be different given the slew of voices globally that have raised concerns and mounting antitrust scrutiny against all big tech giants — if at all, Libra won't launch in the next 12 months.

或许是包含收买Instagram和WhatsApp在内的利好给了Facebook决心,缓解了其在监管方面的忧虑。但是,咱们以为这次将是不同的,因为全球规划内有越来越多的公民开端支撑对对一切大型科技巨子进行反垄断检查,即便Libra在接下来的12个月内不会上市。

Meanwhile, China will launch its own crypto in 2020, leading a number of other countries to ramp up similar efforts.Although Facebook's crypto plans are looking bleak, China's central bank has gotten close to launching its own crypto: It began researching the venture in 2018, and it was reported in August that the crypto was "close to being out."

与此一起,我国将在2020年推出自己的加密技能,并引领其他一些国家加快这方面进程。尽管Facebook的加密方案看起来很暗淡,但我国央行现已挨近推出自己的加密方案:它在2018年开端研讨这项事务,本年8月有报导称,加密技能“行将问世”。

We expect this will happen in 2020, as it has already started testing the digital currency in two cities. This will push an avalanche of other major authorities, particularly the Bank of England and central banks in the EU — with Sweden being a current forerunner — to take steps in that direction to avoid falling behind China.

咱们估计这将在2020年完成,因为现已有两个城市开端测验数字钱银。这将促进其他国家的有关部门,特别是英国央行和欧盟各国央行(瑞典是其时的先行者)纷繁采纳办法,防止落后于我国。

2、South America’s ntech funding will reach a historic high of $1 billion within a single quarter next year.

南美金融科技范畴的单季度融资额将到达10亿美元的历史最高水平。

Fintechs in the region raised $704 million in Q3 2019, marking a record quarter in terms of funding, per CB Insights, and there have been four mega rounds so far this year, including Brazil's Nubank securing $400 million in July and Argentina's Ualá snagging $150 million in November. Investors in these companies include Tencent and SoftBank, while Goldman Sachs' special situations group has also set its sights on investing in the region's fintechs.

2019年第三季度,该区域的金融科技企业共取得7.04亿美元融资,依据CB Insights的数据,这是有史以来融资规划最大的一个季度。而本年迄今为止已有4轮大型融资,其间包含巴西的Nubank在7月份取得了4亿美元的融资,阿根廷的Ula在11月份取得了1.5亿美元的融资。这些公司的出资者包含腾讯和软银,而高盛旗下的出资集团也在考虑出资该区域的金融科技职业。

The large number of unbanked consumers, combined with an uncompetitive financial industry that's dominated by a few incumbents, have created a fertile ground for disruption, especially since smartphone and internet penetration across the region are accelerating. For instance, three-quarters of Brazilians used smartphones in 2017, and this figure is expected to tick up to 86% by 2025, per GSMA data.

很多无银行存款的顾客,加上一个由少量当权者主导的没有竞争力的金融职业,尤其是智能手机和互联网在该区域的加快浸透,为推翻发明了肥美的土壤。例如,2017年仅有四分之三的巴西人在运用智能手机,而依据GSMA的数据,这一数字在2025年将到达86%。

Coupled with the effects of supportive regulatory initiatives — Brazil published guidelines for open banking implementation in April 2019, while Argentina's central bank authorities introduced an initiative in 2018 that enables interoperability between traditional bank accounts and accounts operated by nonbank entities, as examples — we expect South American fintechs to reach quarterly funding of $1 billion in 2020.

加上支撑性监管行动的影响——例如巴西于2019年4月发布了敞开银职事务施行攻略,而阿根廷央行当局则在2018年推出了一项行动,以完成传统银行账户与非银行实体运营账户之间的互操作性——咱们估计南美金融科技公司将在2020年取得10亿美元的季度融资。

南美洲具有VC布景的金融科技出资基金规划

3、A handful of the most innovative incumbent insurers will lead the way on Insurance-as-a- Service (IaaS).

少量最具立异精力的稳妥公司将引领“稳妥即服务(IaaS)”的开展。

Developments in banking are often good indicators of upcoming trends in the insurance industry. One trend that accelerated in the banking space in 2019 was Banking-as-a-Service (BaaS), which saw neobanks and incumbents — including BBVA and Starling — open up their APIs to let third parties build banking solutions using their licensing and underlying infrastructure. And as a number of full-stack insurtechs, which have their own insurance licenses and own the whole value chain, encroach on incumbent insurers' turf — much like neobanks are doing in the banking space — we expect to see a few insurers turn this threat into an opportunity by allowing both incumbents and startups to leverage their technology and licensing to replace legacy IT or build innovative business-to- customer solutions.

银职业的开展状况往往是判别稳妥业未来趋势的杰出方针。2019年银职业加快开展的一个趋势是银行即服务(BaaS),新银行和现有企业(包含BBVA和Starling)敞开了他们的API,让第三方使用其答应证和基础设施构建银行处理方案。并且,跟着一些具有自己的稳妥执照、具有整个价值链的全套稳妥技能公司占据了现有稳妥公司的地盘,就像新银行在银行范畴所做的那样,咱们估计会有几家稳妥公司经过答应在职者、草创企业等使用他们的技能和答应来替代传统的IT或构树立异的企业对客户处理方案,将这一应战转化为机会。

We expect Munich Re, which invested$250 million in insurtech Next Insurance earlier this year, and Zurich Insurance, which has already struck a number of fintech partnerships, to take this approach next year, while Allianz will lead this trend, having recently announced an IaaS offering with Microsoft. By adopting this model, insurers will be able to generate new revenue streams and turn some competitors into customers, while staying on top of the latest digital trends in the industry.

咱们估计,本年早些时候在稳妥科技范畴出资2.5亿美元的慕尼黑再稳妥公司和现已达到多项金融科技协作伙伴关系的苏黎世稳妥公司下一年将采纳这一做法,而最近已宣告与微软协作推出IaaS产品的安联将引领这一趋势。经过选用这种形式,稳妥公司将可以发明新的收入来历,并将一些竞争对手转变为客户,一起把握职业最新的数字趋势。

4、E*Trade will be snapped up in 2020 — but not by Goldman Sachs.

券商巨子E*Trade将被收买,但收买者不是高盛。

Players like Robinhood have shaken up the US online investment space by undercutting incumbent brokerage firms with their fee- free commission models. This led Charles Schwab to become the first major online broker to eliminate its $4.95 per-trade fee in October — a move that was quickly matched by TD Ameritrade, E*Trade, and Fidelity. Now, the industry is bracing for a wave of consolidation as eliminated fees force incumbents to seek ways to cut costs to offset declining revenues.

像罗比尼奥这样的公司现已用他们的免费佣钱形式削弱了现有的生意公司,然后动摇了美国的在线出资空间。这使得查尔斯施瓦布(Charles Schwab)成为第一家在10月份撤销每笔4.95美元买卖费的大型在线生意公司,而TD-Ameritrade、E*trade和Fidelity也敏捷采纳了这一行动。现在,这个职业正准备迎候一波浪潮——兼并被撤销的费用迫使在职者寻求减少本钱的方法来抵消收入的下降。

And with Charles Schwab having agreed to acquire TD Ameritrade for $26 billion in late November, we think E*Trade is the next most likely acquisition target: The smaller peer will need to look for potential buyers following the announced deal between the US’ two biggest publicly traded discount brokers.

鉴于查尔斯施瓦布(Charles Schwab)已于11月底赞同以260亿美元收买TD Ameritrade,咱们以为E*Trade是下一个最有或许的收买方针:规划较小的同行在美国两家最大的上市扣头生意公司宣告买卖后,将需求寻觅潜在买家。

But while Goldman Sachs has been rumored to be looking into an E*Trade acquisition, it’s reportedly also exploring a move for US Bancorp. We believe pursuing a merger with the latter makes more sense for Goldman since the deal would allow it to scale faster, given US Bancorp’s size, and avoid getting too invested in the battered discount trading space.

但高盛被风闻正在尽调收买案时,也有报导称其还在为美国银行集团(Bancorp)探究一项行动。咱们以为,与后者兼并对高盛更有含义,因为考虑到咱们银行集团的规划,这项买卖将使高盛可以更快地扩展规划,防止在遭受重创的折价买卖范畴取得过多出资。

5、In the aftermath of WeWork’s failed IPO, Lemonade will have to contend with another year of staying private.

受WeWork IPO失利影响,Lemonade IPO方案将推延一年。

News about the US insurtech unicorn wanting to go public first emerged in June this year, when Israeli news outlet CTech reported that Lemonade was looking to raise over $500 million during an IPO in New York. However, in November, sources said that the insurtech postponed plans to go public this year — which it wanted to do as early as August or September 2019 — amid concerns over how fast-growing fintechsare perceived by the market.

有关美国稳妥科技独角兽(insuretech unicorn)期望上市的音讯最早出现在本年6月,其时以色列新闻组织CTech报导称,柠檬水公司(Lemonade)期望在纽约IPO期间筹措逾5亿美元资金。但是,在11月,音讯人士表明,Insuretech推延了本年上市的方案,该公司最早期望在2019年8月或9月上市,因为人们忧虑Fintech的增加快度有多快被商场所感知。

WeWork's failed IPO earlier this year likely triggered the decision, as the company's potential float was met with concern around its business model and ability to become profitable. While the insurtech made real strides toward building a profitable business this year — it reduced its loss ratio from 99% at the end of 2018 to 78% in Q3 2019 — it still has a long road to sustainability, with the industry average falling between 65% and 70%, so we don't anticipate the insurtech to go public in the next 12 months.

本年早些时候,WeWork的IPO失利或许引发这一决议,因为公司的潜在浮亏受到了外界对其商业形式和盈余才能的重视。尽管Insuretech本年在树立盈余事务方面取得了实质性发展——它将亏损率从2018年末的99%降至2019年第三季度的78%——但鉴于职业平均水平在65%至70%之间,它的可持续性仍负重致远,因而咱们估计Insuretech不会在未来12个月内上市。

(本文首发钛媒体,编译 | 石万佳)

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